by
SeasideMan
@ 26/08/08 - 22:25:55
"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabrics of their life"
“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him”
-- Leo Tolstoy, 1897
The syndrome is also known as Confirmation Bias, Belief Preservation, Cognitive Bias, Polarization Effect, Selection Bias and Selective Thinking.
It affects all of us to some extent, but it has recently and correctly been applied to George Bush and “The War Against Terror” (TWAT), and also to religious believers and ideologies.
It fits Bush to a tee and to a lesser extent Bliar. Bush was convinced that he knew what was going on with the September 2001 attacks and acted accordingly, dismissing other avenues of inquiry, disregarding the information that didn’t fit his view and plunging ahead regardless. This is a classic sign of bad leadership and poor decision-making and the results in Afghanistan and Iraq speak for themselves.
A classic sign that Tolstoy Syndrome is operating is a willingness to investigate only things that confirm your opinion. Things that go against don’t even get looked at. This was studied at Emory university recently using brain scans, and the results are startling:
“None of the circuits involved in conscious reasoning were particularly engaged. Essentially, it appears as if partisans twirl the cognitive kaleidoscope until they get the conclusions they want, and then they get massively reinforced for it, with the elimination of negative emotional states and activation of positive ones.... Everyone from executives and judges to scientists and politicians may reason to emotionally biased judgments when they have a vested interest in how to interpret 'the facts!”
In the sphere of religion, Tolstoy Syndrome is now often known as “Morton’s Demon”. Morton was a Young Earth Creationist who later gave up his beliefs. He referred to the demon that “stands at the gateway of a person's senses and lets in facts that agree with that person's beliefs while deflecting those that do not”. Religious beliefs have no supporting physical evidence, because they are rooted entirely in faith, so it is hardly surprising that religious believers are classic examples of this trait. There is no evidential basis for their beliefs, so when their faith is challenged the only response is to dismiss, ignore or deny.
Not surprisingly, Tolstoy syndrome affects political ideology strongly as well:
“A study was carried out during the 2004 US presidential election on 30 men, half of whom described themselves as strong Republicans and half as strong Democrats. During a functional magnetic resonance imaging scan, the subjects were asked to assess contradictory statements by both George W. Bush and John Kerry. The scans showed that the part of the brain associated with reasoning was not involved when assessing the statements. The most active regions of the brain were those involved in processing emotions, conflict resolution and making judgments about moral accountability”.
Tolstoy was a very clever man and thought deeply about life, living and people, and at the age of 50 he almost committed suicide because he couldn‘t determine the meaning of life.
But he finally arrived at his answer and it was pacifism, anarchism and vegetarianism
“The Anarchists are right in everything; in the negation of the existing order, and in the assertion that, without Authority, there could not be worse violence than that of Authority under existing conditions. They are mistaken only in thinking that Anarchy can be instituted by a revolution. But it will be instituted only by there being more and more people who do not require the protection of governmental power…There can be only one permanent revolution - a moral one: the regeneration of the inner man”
He described himself as a “Christian anarchist” because he liked the pacifist teachings of Jesus but disliked the church, the clergy and what they represented. He believed that everyone should make their own independent relationship with god, and he summed his thoughts up in his famous book “The Kingdom of God is Within You”.
How can we avoid succumbing to Tolstoy Syndrome ourselves? The answer can be summed up in one word:
Skepticism
When you are thinking about a proposition and need to take a side on it, try to look at each piece of evidence fairly and objectively and decide whether it supports one side or the other or both. Try and determine which side you naturally lean towards, and make sure you investigate both the evidence that supports that natural lean and that which opposes it. Ask questions. Be skeptical.
Cheers, Tom.
